Matches for NFL survivors seem very easy because of the rules, but they are actually much more challenging once you get below the surface. The goal is simple: choose a team to win the game. Competitors try to do that all season, while not being able to repeat the teams they have already selected. It’s not as basic as it sounds, as I outlined in my Survivor strategy article earlier this week.
Week 1 of the NFL season has arrived and features some very tough Survivor decisions. Most of this week’s big favorites are road teams, which seems to increase the difficulty for those teams and create some more hesitation among the participants.
One of the more interesting angles from Week 1 last season was seeing the Buccaneers as a heavy favorite on Thursday and then being able to buy themselves back in a Survivor game if Tampa Bay didn’t win. We don’t really have that this week with Bills vs. Rams, a game that an extremely high percentage of participants will avoid.
I play the game in this weekly article until I lose a pick. After that, I’ll make all teams available, but try to keep in mind that most readers have already used the more popular teams when sharing my advice. We did this article through week 14 of last season and I never duplicated a team.
Let’s evaluate week 1’s picks:
GAMES TO CONSIDER
Indianapolis Colts (-8) over Houston Texans
Expectations are very high for the Colts with second player of the year Jonathan Taylor and the addition of veteran signalman Matt Ryan. Expectations are not high for the Texans as they have elevated Lovie Smith from defensive coordinator to head coach. There’s a section of NFL analysts that Davis Mills really likes, but the Texans still have a low offensive projection with Pep Hamilton calling playoffs.
I’m not sure if much has really changed between these two teams after the Colts won 31-3 and 31-0 last season. Houston had one of the worst-executed defenses in the league last season, and Smith didn’t hire a new defensive coordinator. The Texans have dropped seven of their last eight to the Colts — and probably will be eight of their last nine.
The Colts will host the Texans in Week 18, so their biggest favorite role of the season is still a long way off. Indy hosts Jacksonville in week 6, so that could be an option depending on what the Jaguars look like between then and now.
Baltimore Raven (-7) over New York Jets
The Ravens take on old friend Joe Flacco as they try to erase the memory of how last season ended. Baltimore was 8-3, but lost six consecutive games to finish the season, including five games with three or fewer points. The incredible bad luck faced by players in virtually all positions, including QB Lamar Jackson, had a huge impact on the season.
Baltimore is heading into the Week 1 opener largely healthy of yet another undefeated preseason. The Jets, meanwhile, are missing QB Zach Wilson, who returns this month, but remains on a fluid schedule. Flacco hasn’t played much in the past three seasons, with a 15:8 TD-to-INT ratio in 13 starts and two rescues. It’s hard to see him succeed against a buttoned up and healthy Ravens defense.
The Jets have an exciting roster of young players, but Baltimore is an accomplished unit that has been a consistent performer for nearly two decades. Since John Harbaugh took over in 2008, the Ravens have been standing 10-4 in season openers. It should come as no surprise that one of the league’s top coaches has his team ready with plenty of time to prepare.
THE CHOICE
San Francisco 49ers (-7) over Chicago Bears
The risk is pretty obvious here: imagine your week 1 Survivor hope on Trey Lance heading out? The 49ers are superior to the Bears in every other facet and frankly, Lance has more advantage than Justin Fields, especially considering the team around him. It might be an understatement to say that the Bears are starting this season with no expectations.
Chicago’s defense was by far better than last year’s offense, but still ranked in the bottom half of the league in yards per carry allowed. That seems to be a very important statistic here with San Francisco’s hasty prowess. New head coach Matt Eberflus is a defensive man, so things may be improving, but there are serious staff shortages on this roster in defense.
There are even more on the attack. Offensive Coordinator Luke Getsy has a big job ahead of him as the first NFL playcaller. Fields is one of the NFL’s more mobile QBs, still having been fired 36 times in just 12 games with one of the highest layoff rates in the league. In total, the Bears have turned in 58 sacks and still have one of the worst offensive lines in the league. The 49ers had 48 sacks last season and are getting a lot of pressure with the front four without sacrificing guys in cover. This looks like a terrible match-up for the Bears and a good way for Lance to get wet as the undisputed starter.
The 49ers will play road games in Carolina and Atlanta in weeks 5 and 6. However, the Panthers game is a short week after hosting the Rams on Monday Night Football, and the Falcons game immediately follows the Panthers game (before they see the Chiefs). and Rams for the bye). In other words, this is probably the best place to get to San Francisco in the near future, so I’ll take the 49ers as this week’s choicewith the Ravens a close second.
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