For years, college football has had no parity.
The same teams are selected for the College Football Playoff with four teams – 13 different programs that played for everything in the eight years of the system and only five that made it to the title game in the last seven years.
Twice in the previous five seasons, the finals have been determined by SEC rivals Georgia and Alabama. The Pac-12 hasn’t been represented since 2017, and the Big 12 has been missing out for the past two years. And things only get worse as the SEC added two of the top programs from the Big 12 — Oklahoma and Texas — and the Big Ten poached USC and UCLA from the Pac-12, changes tentatively set to take place in 2025 and 2024, respectively. .
“It’s the Power 2,” American Athletic Conference commissioner Mike Aresco told The Post, “and everyone else.”
Aresco called USC and UCLA heading to the Big Ten a “pretty big earthquake.” The aftershocks may not be over either. Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren envisions that his league will have 20 teams at some point in the future. There are reports that Oregon is interested in participating in the powerhouse conference. That would only leave big brands like the independent Notre Dame — along with Florida State, Miami and Clemson of the diminished ACC — out of the super leagues, creating a clear divide between the haves and the have-nots.
“For all the money pouring into college football, as evidenced by the new Big Ten deal, I still feel like the sport is headed for an iceberg at some point,” Paul Finebaum, a college football analyst, historian and radio chat host for ESPN, The Post told a telephone interview. “It’s just untenable what’s happening because now you essentially have two super conferences within the structure, and you can try to argue that the rest of the sport matters. But I don’t think it really is.
“You have the Big Ten and the SEC and there is no one else in that ecosystem.”
The Big Ten’s recent blockbuster television deal with FOX, CBS, and NBC will pay up to $1.2 billion a year through 2030 and feature its games on Saturdays in three different time slots. The SEC is currently raising $300 million from ESPN, a figure that could rise once Oklahoma and Texas join.
By having two conferences that are clearly superior to the rest of the country – in terms of performance and revenue on the field – college football threatens to further hurt its already imbalanced product. Attendance to the sport is related to a decline, seven years of declining numbers. According to the NCAA, the sport’s 130 teams averaged 39,848 fans per game, the fewest since 1981. While some of this can be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic, this is a worrying trend.
“This is probably the most critical time we’ve had in decades,” Aresco said. “That kind of consolidation [with two power leagues] really runs the risk that the rest of the country is irrelevant. That’s what you can’t have. Eventually there will be less interest.”
One possible solution could be an expanded play-off system that has been talked about for years, if those in power can get on the same page. The current system will run until 2025. In June 2021, a playoff working group recommended expanding to 12 teams, including the six highest-ranked conference champions and six major teams, determined by the selection committee’s rankings.
But the playoff’s management committee, made up of the 10 FBS commissioners and Notre Dame’s athletic director, Jack Swarbrick, failed to reach a unanimous agreement and the plan was submitted. At a meeting in July, there was renewed optimism about an expansion agreement, perhaps spurred on by the recent additions of the Big Ten. However, it is uncertain whether the new format can be implemented immediately if agreement can be reached in the near future.
“I don’t think college football can wait until 2026 to have an extended playoff because we watch the games in the media every day,” Finebaum said. “It’s a shrinking sport. Now look at the ACC. This was considered one of the best football conferences around until not so long ago. Now they are extremely at a disadvantage.”
Automatic qualifications can be a bottleneck. The Big Ten and SEC clearly don’t need them. The other leagues would definitely like them, if only as a selling point to recruits that they can still reach the biggest podium in the sport without playing in either of the two super leagues. Otherwise, folks like the Pac-12, ACC, Big 12, and AAC risk an uphill battle on a steep incline.
“This is why Mike is hitting Aresco on the table. You have to have some automatic qualifications,” said Rick Neuheisel, former Washington and UCLA coach and SiriusXM college football analyst. “You Can’t Have” [conference champions] is judged against the teams in fourth and fifth place in the Super Two Conferences. You need to have some automatic qualifiers just like in the basketball tournament. ”
It is clearly a groundbreaking moment in the sport. Super leagues are being created and more movement may be coming. A lot of money is being thrown in as the name, image and likeness deals have shown no signs of slowing down. The transfer portal and the new rule that allows players to switch schools once without serving a year have created even more chaos. The money and the top players can all be funneled into two leagues that own almost all the top brands.
“It’s all powered by television, and it’s all powered by ESPN and FOX, and essentially that’s the battle line,” Finebaum said. “This is no longer about college sports. This is more like something you would see on Wall Street, a battle between Pepsi and Coke or Miller and Budweiser. That’s where we are now. It’s an incredibly strange place. I’ve covered college football for 40 years and I’ve never seen it like this.”
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