Barring a massive and ongoing collapse that could trigger a massive mutiny (or universal depression or both) of the fans, the long local nightmare will soon be over. The Mariners are – stop reading now if you believe in jinxes – really, really, probably heading to the playoffs after a 20-year absence.
Here’s the best part: they’re perfectly set up to deal major damage when they get there.
Ignore the aberration of Wednesday’s sloppy 9-6 loss to the White Sox, in which the Mariners denied manager Scott Servais’ pregame statement: “I’ve often told you we win a lot of games. We don’t lose many games.”
Well, this one they lost by conceding six unearned runs through three fouls. But it is an outlier; the Mariners are among the best defensive teams in baseball year-round and are fundamentally strong. Servais was right when he said this after the game: “I’m not going to hammer it. Heaven does not fall. We had a bad day.”
Usually the Mariners have been stacking good day after good day since mid-June. Every year, a team is anointed as the one no one wants to meet in the postseason. The Mariners deserve that label in 2022. Oh, you could certainly say the same about the Dodgers, Astros, and Braves, but they hardly sneak up on anyone; those three teams represent three of the last five World Series winners (and four of the last five World Series losers).
The Mariners would be new blood. They are a team that has been absent from the national stage for so long that it would be easy for the casual fan (and even some enthusiasts) to sleep on them.
That would be unwise. The Mariners would go into the postseason like a joker, but they possess many of the elements that lead to long runs. Let me quickly add that they can also be dislodged in the first round; the postseason is a crapshoot, as Billy Beane said more eloquently (and profane) after one of the many early ouster of his A’s. The Mariners are far from an offensive powerhouse and they still tend to waste too many scoring opportunities. That’s why they are behind the Astros in their division in double-digit games.
But here’s why I like their noise-making opportunities:
- Start pitching. In a short run, especially if Servais has the luxury of setting up his rotation the way he chooses, the Mariners can throw a potentially dominant starter in any game. Think Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray and probably Logan Gilbert to start with, with George Kirby lurking in the mix.
Before Wednesday, when Castillo opened the game with an American League-record with seven strikeouts in a row and faltered in the sixth, their starters were 12-2 averaging 2.08 earned runs (111 strikeouts and 16 walks in 117 innings) in their previous 20 games. That takes place in the regular season – and especially in the post-season.
Servais said: “Every day our team comes into the stadium and says, ‘Who throws for us?’ And it’s a good feeling. ‘Okay, who’s throwing? Oh, yes, we’ll be there. We’re going to win today.’ And then tomorrow: ‘Oh, yes. We are here. We should win today.’
“There is no better feeling: pitching drives the train; it will always drive the train in baseball as far as I’m concerned. You have to make the plays behind it and do all the other stuff. But we’re in a good place. Love our rotation. We just have to keep them healthy.”
- bullpen. What really plays into the postseason, when managers tend to have quick hooks, is relief. Mainly dominant, strikeout-inducing short relief. And the Mariners are filled with powerful arms that allow Servais to play the matchup game that teams like Kansas City and Cleveland have exploited so well in recent years. I can absolutely guarantee that no team is eager to take on Andres Munoz, who is arguably the most overpowering reliever in the game this side of Edwin Diaz right now. Outside of Munoz, the Mariners have arguably had the best pen in the AL in the past 60-plus games, by pretty much every measure.
- Momentum: Despite Wednesday’s rumble, the Mariners have been playing the best baseball in the American League for, oh, 2½ months. Since falling 10 games under 0.500 on June 21, the final sky-is-falling moment of the 2022 season, they have a record 48-21 – a win rate of 0.696. Over a season of 162 games, that would translate into 113 wins.
The only team better than that period is the powerhouse Dodgers (53-17). Next up after Seattle is defending champion Braves (46-22), who will begin a three-game run at T-Mobile Park on Friday that should go a long way toward measuring the Mariners’ place in the MLB hierarchy.
Admittedly, the Mariners were able to undo their momentum by stumbling in the final three weeks of the season. But with a finishing schedule of 20 consecutive games against sub-.500 teams – the last 10 at home – they should still be able to slide on that wave in October.
- The Julio Factor: Yes, their vaunted rookie is only 21, but if anyone from the Mariners can take over any series under the glowing spotlight, it’s Julio Rodriguez. He already showed that tendency to grow in the Home Run Derby. Superstars can carry teams on their backs and Rodriguez is a superstar in the making.
- The X Factor: I suspect the agonizing drought in the playoffs, as painful as it has been, will become the Mariners’ friend if and when they come in October. They are sure to become a sentimental favorite in the first place; but more importantly, the atmosphere at T-Mobile will be downright maniacal after an absence of two decades. Just think about what it was like in 1995, and expect that level of fanaticism, or maybe more. No team should have a greater home advantage.
Here’s my unsolicited advice for fans who may still be obsessed with the thorn in the side of a Wednesday loss: Harp instead at the looming possibilities.
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