The Seattle Mariners will host the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday-evening for the second game of a three-game series between the two playoff candidates. The White Sox won the first game on Monday 3-2 behind seven strong innings off starter Lance Lynn.
Both Seattle and Chicago are in the midst of the postseason race heading into the final weeks of the season. That, along with a strong pitching matchup, makes me lean heavily on an Over/Under bet tonight. Find out why in my free best MLB picks and predictions for the White Sox vs. Mariners game on September 6.
White Sox vs Mariners best odds
White Sox vs Mariners picks and predictions
Neither the Chicago White Sox nor the Seattle Mariners are known for scoring runs, and both are sending solid pitchers to the mound tonight. That got me interested in supporting the Under at 7.5 tonight.
Seattle is 21st in MLB in runs per game at 4.19 with Chicago only slightly better at 19th (4.24). In four matchups this season, the two teams have only scored more than six runs together once. Given the implications of the playoffs, both managers will have their pitchers on short lines in an effort to stay in the game if they struggle early.
That shouldn’t be a problem for the White Sox, though. Veteran Johnny Cueto is enjoying a vintage season, having completed at least eight innings in three of his last six starts. Seattle will counter with 25-year-old Logan Gilbert, who racked up a 3.35 ERA in his sophomore season.
Gilbert doesn’t go as deep into games as Cueto, averaging just 5.77 innings per start, though he’s completed at least six innings in three of his last four games. Either way, the Mariners can then lean on their protruding bullpen to oversee the rest of the game. Seattle’s relievers have pitched to a 3.70 ERA, the fourth best mark in the majors this year. The Mariners didn’t have to lean on their bullpen much last night, as Marco Gonzales went through seven innings, leaving stalwarts like Erik Swanson, Andrews Munoz and Paul Sewald fresh on Tuesday.
In addition, both teams are loaded with right-handed bats and hit better against left-handers – especially the White Sox, who have put down a .772 OPS against left-handers compared to just .687 against right-handers. The two right-handers taking the mound on Tuesday should do even better than usual against formations ill-prepared to take them on.
The fact that the game is set in Seattle is also relevant. T-Mobile Park is one of the worst stadiums in MLB for batters, ranking 29th in park factor for runs scored.
All these factors would push me towards a reasonable Under. The fact that punters have brought the total from 7 to 7.5 at all the major sportsbooks doesn’t dissuade me, it just makes me much happier to take the Under tonight.
my best guess: Under 7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
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White Sox vs Mariners betting example
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Distribution Analysis
While the Houston Astros have eloped with the AL West, the Mariners have remained consistent and solid in a postseason position for most of the season. Now, with a 9-2 run over the last 11 games, Seattle has lifted its record to 76-59 and is virtually level with the Tampa Bay Rays for the top spot in the American League by wildcard.
The White Sox have had a harder time this year. Chicago has spent most of the year at around .500, a trend that continues into September. After a slide brought the White Sox down to three games under .500 in late August, they recovered by winning five of their last six to improve to 68-67, two games behind the Cleveland Guardians in a three-team race ahead. the AL Central crown.
Seattle was the better team this year, thanks in large part to superior pitching, especially from the bullpen. The Mariners also had a great season with 21-year-old rookie midfielder Julio Rodriguez hitting .272 with 23 home runs and a .810 OPS, establishing himself as the overwhelming betting favorite for AL Rookie of the Year.
The White Sox lineup will include starless shortstop Tim Anderson, who continues to recover from a torn ligament in the middle finger of his left hand. However, Chicago can expect a strong start from Cueto on Tuesday. He has a 2.93 ERA and 1,171 WHIP this season, his best numbers since his 2016 All-Star year for the San Francisco Giants.
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Over/Under analysis
Neither team has set the world on fire at the plate this year, with both in the back half in runs scored per game.
While Seattle has struck a little better lately, Chicago’s attack hasn’t been able to yield much in the past month. The White Sox averaged just 3.93 runs over their last 27 games, down from their season average of 4.24.
The Mariners are not hitting well at home, averaging just 3.77 runs per game in Seattle. But that’s only because no one can hit much on T-Mobile Park. The park factor of 0.866 for runs would be the worst in the majors were it not for the black hole that is San Diego’s Petco Park.
Both starters have posted good numbers this season. Cueto, in particular, has impressed all year as he is 36 years old, showing he can go deep into games while maintaining a 2.93 ERA. He was slightly better against right-handed batters, which he will see a lot in the Seattle lineup, while the Mariners hit only .229 with a .695 OPS against right-handers.
Gilbert enjoys an equally favorable matchup, as the White Sox have lined up an OPS of just .687 against legal entities. However, Gilbert throws to reverse splits. The right-hander has kept left-handers a .580 OPS, while right-handers have fared much better (.792). That could offer some hope for Chicago’s big right-handed bats at the center of the lineup, including Jose Abreu and Eloy Jimenez.
White Sox vs Mariners game information
• Place: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
• Date: Tuesday 6 September 2022
• first pitch: 21:40 ET
• TV: MLB Network
Starting pitchers
Johnny Cueto (7-6, 2.93 ERA)Cueto, 36, has enjoyed a recovery season, one that has helped keep the White Sox in the playoff battle. His 2.93 ERA and 3.87 FIP are the lowest numbers he has set since 2016. Although Cueto has struckout just 5.7 strikeouts per nine innings – the fewest in his career – he has compensated for this by lowering his walk (1.9 per nine innings) to contain offenses to the contrary. Cueto last pitched on Thursday and held the Kansas City Royals to one run on six hits in 5.1 innings of work.
Logan Gilbert (11-5, 3.35 ERA): After a promising rookie season in 2021, Gilbert has become a reliable starter for the Mariners, with a 3.59 FIP and a 1.214 WHIP in 2022. His 27 starts led the American League, allowing him to throw 155 2-3 innings despite that he didn’t go more than 6 1-3 innings in any of his last 17 appearances. Gilbert gave up only two hits on his last start on September 1, while eliminating the Detroit Tigers in six innings.
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Weather
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Bet trend to know
The Under is 7-1-1 in the Mariners’ last nine home games. Find more trends in MLB bets for White Sox vs. Mariners
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