With 162 games in the baseball season, it’s easy to think some don’t matter.
But this is September, and she Surely to do. That’s why it was hard for fans to watch the Mariners in this last piece. Because this is when winning matters most and – having gone 4-6 in their last 10 games – they haven’t done much about it lately.
There are still 15 games to go in the regular season and a lot can still happen.
Currently, the Mariners hold the third and final AL wildcard spot, 5 games ahead of Baltimore and 5.5 over the White Sox in the wildcard standings. The Mariners hold the tiebreaker of the season over the Orioles, so if the teams tie, Seattle would come in. The White Sox, meanwhile, hold the tiebreaker over the Mariners, making Chicago a team to watch closely.
Despite their recent skirmishes, the Mariners’ playoff chances haven’t changed much. Fangraphs gives them a 99.3% chance of making it to the postseason with a 3.8% chance of winning the World Series, while FiveThirtyEight gives them a 99% chance with a 2% chance of winning the title .
So what does that mean for the Mariners and how far are they from earning a playoff berth for the first time in 21 years? Well, that brings us to the magic number, or number of games until a playoff spot is guaranteed.
The magic number is calculated by looking at the number of games it takes a team to win or lose to its closest competitor. It is determined by using the number of games remaining and subtracting your wins and losses from the opponent.
MLB uses this formula: Games Remaining +1 – (Losses by 2nd place team – Losses by 1st place team)
Let’s look at it in terms of the last AL wildcard place.
Now we know the number of games remaining (15). The Orioles (the second-place team) have 71 losses and the Mariners (the first-place team) 66. Using some simple PEMDAS math, we get the following.
Magic number = 15 + 1 – (5) = 11
Except for that this is not the real magic number because the Mariners hold the tiebreaker over the Orioles. It’s like there’s an extra loss for the O’s if they ended up with the same record.
Real magic number = 15 + 1 – (6) = 10
And you thought after high school you would never use algebra in real life.
Too long, didn’t read? The magic number for the Mariners is 10.
Every time the Mariners win, that number decreases. Every time the Orioles lose, that number decreases. If the White Sox catch up with the O’s, we’ll have to replace the White Sox’s losses with the Orioles. We can cross that bridge when we get there.
Now let’s move on to some power rankings.
SI.com: No. 10
The Athletic: No. 9
We’re tired of hearing about the Mariners’ post-season drought. Jerry Dipoto especially, which is why he probably sleeps about 90 minutes a night as his team tries to make up for a rebuild that started in 2018.
I expected the Mariners to win over 90 games this season, but not quite like this. I thought Robbie Ray would be excellent after moving from Toronto to Seattle, and he’s been great at T-Mobile Park (2.73 ERA). But he’s pretty bad on the road (5.08 ERA). Their big off-season trade would be about Jesse Winker, but in years to come it will likely be known as “the Eugenio Suárez trade.”
Suárez is out with an injured finger, which is not great. But the finish schedule is quite favorable: A’s, Royals, Rangers, A’s, Tigers. No excuses.
CBS Sports: No. 11
I didn’t even mention the Mariners in the intro, but it wasn’t a mistake. It’s because the rest of their schedule is pathetically weak (A’s, Royals, Rangers, A’s and Tigers). Must sail smoothly. On the other hand, they lost three out of four to the Angels.
Bleacher Report: No. 12
The Mariners were dealt a blow when they lost three of four in their recent series against the Los Angeles Angels, but they still came into play on Tuesday with a five-game bandage over the Baltimore Orioles for the third AL wildcard spot. Rookie George Kirby has a 2.03 ERA in 10 starts since the All-Star break as he argues for a spot in the potential post-season rotation.
MLB.com: No. 9
USA Today: No. 9
Eugenio Suarez heads to the IL with a broken right index finger.
Correction: For the magic number calculation to use the White Sox’s losses instead of the Orioles, the White Sox would have to catch up with the Orioles, not the Mariners, as stated in an earlier version of this story.
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