Our early look at last week’s big games went 5-1, offsetting our dealer’s pick “Saturday Seven,” highlighting the nature of small sample sizes. All things considered, a week of 7-6 takes us to 29-23-1 on the season overall, despite one of our games popping up in a high-profile segment about “Bad Beats.”
With apologies for two legitimately fun matchups at Texas Tech-Kansas State and Oregon State-Utah, we’ve got a loaded run of big games to match the first day of October football.
No. 4 Michigan @ Iowa (+10.5, 42.5)
Michigan came closest to a challenge from Maryland last week, failing to cover a large number. Iowa does what it always does – ride its defense and special teams to stay competitive and hope the sales margin goes down to give itself a chance to win. The Hawkeyes’ attack is mocked, but that only creates some value for Kirk Ferentz as the big underdog at Kinnick Stadium.
Line outlook: Iowa + 10.5
No. 18 Oklahoma @ TCU (+7, 68)
Oklahoma’s defense was discovered last week by a mobile quarterback as Adrian Martinez and Kansas State marched up and down the field in Norman. TCU can do the same at home, especially if it has a solid package for backup quarterback Sam Jackson. A win for the Horned Frogs would put them in the game for the Big 12 title, while a loss for the Sooners would really hurt their chances.
Line outlook: TCU +7
No. 7 Kentucky at No. 14 Ole Miss (-6.5, 54.5)
Kentucky has already gone out against a team that is considered better, and we’ve seen what happened in Florida. The same could be the case here against an undefeated Ole Miss team that has never had anything close to a high-level opponent. The Wildcats have the better defense, coach and quarterback, and more experience in this type of game.
Line outlook: Wait for Kentucky +7, bet +6 or better for kick-off
No. 22 Wake Forest @ No. 23 Florida State (-7.66)
If Wake Forest had won in overtime and got rid of the upset over Clemson, this game would have been a real doozy. It probably would have also meant the line would go under a touchdown. Florida State still gets a lot of credit for what it’s done this season, but the offense of Sam Hartman and the Demon Deacons will give the Seminoles a different look.
Line outlook: Awake Forest +7
No. 9 Oklahoma State @ No. 16 Baylor (-2.5, 56.5)
In last year’s Big 12 Championship Game rematch, both teams believe they can return to Dallas. Baylor showed a small win at Iowa State last week and came as close to winning at BYU as possible. This is Oklahoma State’s first road race of the season, so the market rating is based on home wins over Central Michigan, Arizona State and Arkansas-Pine Bluff. I’ll take the tried and true bears to cover under a field goal.
Line outlook: Baylor -2.5
No. 2 Alabama @ No. 20 Arkansas (+17.5, 61)
If you’re dealing with a heartbreaking loss, Alabama has to splash some water in your face when you come to town. Arkansas should have beaten Texas A&M to put on an undefeated showdown this week.
As they always seem to be, the Crimson Tide 17-point favorites are on the road against a decent SEC team. Arkansas lost to Tuscaloosa by seven last year despite giving up 671 yards. If the Razorbacks can cut that short and get the same production from KJ Jefferson, at least they can cover this great number in Fayetteville.
Line outlook: Arkansas +17.5
No. 17 Texas A&M @ Mississippi State (-3.5, 45.5)
Speaking of the Aggies, Saturday’s win was thanks to an all-time fumble recovery return for a touchdown. If that doesn’t happen, we may see things crumble in College Station. Instead, we get some value on Mississippi State since the last spotlight game was a loss at LSU. The Bulldogs provide a very different set of tasks for Texas A&M, and their defense can take out the Aggies’ attack.
Line outlook: Wait for Mississippi State -3, bet -3.5 before kick-off
No. 10 North Carolina State @ No. 5 Clemson (-6.5, 40.5)
One of our favorite Saturdays in 2021 was cashing out a cash card in the state of North Carolina in Clemson, Clemson’s hometown. NC State was a 10-point underdog that day, but this line is around a touchdown with the Death Valley game. The Tigers’ offense made great strides in a shootout with Wake Forest last week, but it’s defense that will make the difference this week. At -6.5 Clemson is the game.
Line outlook: Clemson -6.5
Matt Russell is a gambling writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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