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Sony is concerned about Call of Duty.

Regulators around the world are investigating this monstrous acquisition of Activision by Microsoft and are asking competitors about it. And Sony has made its point clear. The PlayStation company considers the importance of Call of Duty to be “indescribable,” and that it’s so entrenched “that even if a competitor had the budget to develop a similar product, it couldn’t match it.” In other words, Call of Duty is a game that “affects the user’s choice of console”.

Is it a little hyperbolic? Call of Duty is one of the world’s biggest game franchises, but it doesn’t stand alone. Games like FIFA and Fortnite are just as big, if not bigger. And there are plenty of big games markets, including Japan, where it’s a relatively small player.

As for influencing console buyers, that may be true. But as a counter, the biggest game console on the market right now is Nintendo Switch, and that machine has never had a Call of Duty game (which Xbox thinks is a missed opportunity).

Much of the fear stems from the prospect that one day in the future Microsoft will make the series exclusive to the Xbox platform (despite assurances that it won’t).

If Xbox took the game off PlayStation, some would leave Sony, but others would leave Call of Duty

The evidence for this is that after Microsoft bought Bethesda, it then announced that its future games would not be coming to Sony’s consoles. But Bethesda is not Call of Duty. Most of Bethesda’s games are small to medium in terms of commercial success. The exception is games made by the company’s flagship studio, Bethesda Games Studios, which makes the Elder Scrolls and Fallout games. But BGS is not a prolific developer. Between the last major game (Fallout 4) and the next (Starfield), ten Call of Duty games have been released.

Call of Duty is on a very different scale. The closest Xbox to an IP of this size is Minecraft. Microsoft bought that game eight years ago, and it continues to be available (and supported) on every single platform. Just like Minecraft Dungeons. The next game in the Minecraft series – Minecraft Legends – was announced in June and it is also released in multiple formats. It was even showcased at Nintendo’s latest event.

Granted, Minecraft is a radically different proposition to Call of Duty, but there’s a shared truth that if Microsoft took Minecraft away from Nintendo and PlayStation, Minecraft would be the biggest loser. Call of Duty has a huge fan base on PlayStation. If Xbox prevented that audience from playing the game, some might abandon Sony, but others will just leave Call of Duty. And that would give competitors, such as EA’s Battlefield series, a unique opportunity.

Throughout its eight years of ownership, Microsoft has kept Minecraft and its spin-offs as a multiplatform brand

But even beyond the Minecraft precedent, Call of Duty on PlayStation actually benefits Xbox. Microsoft isn’t that interested in the battle for the console boxes. It believes that the future of games will be through streaming and subscriptions. Call of Duty isn’t so much a reason to buy an Xbox console as it is a reason to subscribe to the Game Pass subscription service.

And this is where PlayStation is rightly concerned. Because Call of Duty is the number 1 game on PS4 and PS5. Should this deal go through, Microsoft will own the most popular game on PlayStation. And what a chance that is. The marketing itself writes: ‘Are you tired of spending $70 every year on this game? Want extra in-game items and points? Then subscribe to Game Pass. You can even stream it on mobile.”

Microsoft could speak directly to PlayStation’s own fanbase on its own console, putting Sony in an impossible position to either reject its console’s most popular game, or accept what could amount to a massive Game Pass ad disguised as a first person shooter.

Sony may have to reject its console’s most popular game or accept a huge Game Pass ad disguised as a first-person shooter

PlayStation knows the power of Call of Duty. It cites the deal it struck with Activision – giving PS4 owners early access to Call of Duty DLC – as a factor in that console’s early success. Even in a weakened state, which it is at the moment, Call of Duty remains a behemoth of a franchise, especially in North America. And that’s important, because the competition between the two consoles is the fiercest in the US.

It’s now up to the regulators to decide whether a console manufacturer that owns the Call of Duty IP is fair or not.

However, it is not just regulators who are asking tough questions, but also the industry. Microsoft has been on a charm offensive for some time, proactively trying to assure the company that it has good intentions with all these investments. And it works. Most developers and publishers I’ve spoken to have nothing but positive things to say about Microsoft and its gaming initiatives.

But there is always a caveat. ‘Xbox is now in charge’, ‘Xbox has been a great partner so far’, ‘Right now it’s all about Xbox’… those are real quotes from recent exchanges I’ve had with developers. They’re all saying how great Xbox is turning out to be, while acknowledging that things are changing.

Because it could. In recent interviews, Xbox boss Phil Spencer has cited the likes of Amazon and Google and Meta as potential competitors to Xbox, but also as a risk to the gaming industry in general. The implication is that these giants are not traditional games companies and do not have the best interests of the games industry in mind.

But that can also apply to Microsoft. Of course, the company has been in games for decades and I have no doubts about the sincerity of Spencer, Booty, Bond and the entire Xbox team. They are game people. I’ve talked to them enough to know that they will always be play people.

But is Satya Nadella real? Are the shareholders of Microsoft? We’re told it is, but you’ll forgive some developers – especially those with experience in large companies – for being a little skeptical. It’s all ‘let the talent do what makes them feel best’ when the sun is out, but the real test of their determination is when the storm clouds begin to form.

If Microsoft is right about subscriptions and streaming (and it’s by no means a guarantee), then this Call of Duty decision is a key moment. It’s the kind of deal that could make Microsoft, with Game Pass, xCloud (and Azure), and the ever-growing number of studios, one of the most influential game companies in the world. It will have an important product to drive this change in the way games are paid and distributed.

No wonder Sony is concerned.